Measuring the Success of the New Deal

Roosevelt set out to give relief, to enable the economy to recover and to initiate reforms as to the way the economy was to be managed in the future. But how do we measure the New Deal’s success?

Cost benefits can be measured to some degree statistically: costs versus unemployment figures coupled with benefits from developing the infrastructure. But how can we know how bad unemployment would have got if there hadn’t been a New Deal? Whilst the second point begs the question at what point do we stop measuring those benefits to the infrastructure? After all, they’re still around today.

Then there is the matter of how to measure the benefit accruing from the relief paid out. How can we know how many people would have died without it? How many families may have broken up with a cost placed on the state to help individuals in those families survive the break-up? How do we measure the impact on civil peace? And then there is the issue of confidence. How on earth is that measured?

We can turn to anecdotes, what people were saying at the time about their feelings, their trust in Roosevelt, etc. We can measure civil unrest. And we can look at the election results to measure this to some degree. But there are so many extenuating circumstances attached to all these methods as to muddy the waters of any conclusions.

Ultimately, as with so many things in history, it can come down to an individual’s political perspective. But don’t let all these problems be a problem for you. Your job in the exam hall is not to solve the problems but to highlight them wherever it is appropriate to do so. Show that you understand history is not straight forward and that there are deep, perhaps unresolvable debates. You will score well if you do!